Bulgaria’s gross external debt (private and public) continues to grow steadily, reaching €54.3 billion at the end of November 2025. This represents 47.3% of the projected gross domestic product (GDP) for the year, according to the latest data from the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB).
The dominant role of the state
Over a 12-month period, total external debt increased by €5.34 billion (10.9%). The main driver of this increase is the public sector, which increased its external liabilities by 35.6% in one year, reaching €17.61 billion. This increase is due to the €7.2 billion in bonds issued on international markets in the spring and summer of last year. This is a record amount in the country’s history.
The other sector with significant growth is banking, whose external liabilities increased by 19.5% (€1.3 billion) compared to November 2024.
In contrast to these trends, there has been a decline in intercompany lending, which has shrunk by 3.9% (€546.1 million) on an annual basis.
From stability to accelerated growth
An analysis of data for the last five years reveals a change in the dynamics of external debt.
During the pandemic (2020 – 2021), total external debt remained relatively stable in nominal terms (around €38–41 billion), but its share of GDP was higher (over 60%) due to the economic contraction during this period.
Subsequently, between 2023 and 2025, there was a sharp nominal increase. If at the end of 2023 the debt was €45.75 billion, by November 2025 it will already be over €54 billion – an increase of nearly €8.5 billion in less than two years. At the same time, however, there is a significant contraction as a share of GDP, which is due to the growing economy, especially during the post-pandemic recovery.
Five years ago (2020), long-term liabilities accounted for 84.6% of total debt, and this ratio remains stable in 2025 (84.2%). However, the public sector is gradually replacing the private sector as the main driver of new debt.
Translated with DeepL.
Източник: Economic.bg
